Aswath Damodaran
Academic · academic
Aswath Damodaran is a Professor of Finance at the Stern School of Business at New York University. He is known for his work on equity valuation, corporate finance, and investment analysis, and publishes widely on these topics.
Sources: blog (https://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/feeds/posts/default) · substack (https://aswathdamodaran.substack.com/feed) · x (AswathDamodaran) · youtube (@AswathDamodaranonValuation)
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B · Background7of 10 · n=28
E · Expertise9of 10 · n=28
A · Authoritativeness8of 10 · n=28
T · Trustworthiness8of 10 · n=28
S · Source8of 10 · n=28
BEATS 8 of 10 · n=28 · measured 26.10.11
Win rate by category
share of settled calls that proved right, in each categoryNo settled calls yet — a category shows once one of their calls resolves.
Where they stand
their own words, with a date and a sourceNo stances on record yet.
Track record
26 claims · an outcome shows once the claim resolves| Outcome | Claim | Call · when | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | The author predicts that Anthropic's revenue growth will decelerate further in the coming quarters as competition intensifies and compute‑capacity constraints persist. resolves 27.01.26 |
bearish · 26.10.28 | TheAnthropic IPO Arrives: My (but not the) Anthropic Valuation! |
| — | The author predicts that Anthropic will be priced rather than valued for its IPO, implying the market will overprice the shares. resolves 26.11.27 |
bearish · 26.10.28 | TheAnthropic IPO Arrives: My (but not the) Anthropic Valuation! |
| — | IPOs get priced rather than valued, and as a young company with growing revenues and big losses, Anthropic's pricing will be based on buzzy, unfamiliar metrics — the AI-era analogue of eyeballs in the dotcom era and users in the social media decade, i.e. ARR. resolves 27.01.21 |
bearish · 26.10.23 | X posts by Aswath Damodaran (2026-10-08 – 2026-10-23) |
| — | Estimates presented around Anthropic's pre-IPO meeting projected its annual revenue run rate would exceed $100 billion by the end of the year. resolves 27.01.05 |
bullish · 26.10.22 | From Eyeballs to ARR: Buzzy Pricing Metrics and the AI Trade! |
| — | Aswath Damodaran: Broadcom's valuation is deeply challenging due to cyclicality and peak multiples, with models suggesting significant downside risk. resolves 28.09.21 |
bearish · 26.09.22 · AVGO | N0S Research Report: AVGO |
| — | Fundamental valuation models indicate that the delayed monetization of AI projects significantly increases downside risk and warrants lower equity multiples than current market levels. resolves 27.08.09 |
bearish · 26.08.09 | Dean of Valuation Aswath Damodaran Raises Alarm Bells for Meta, Alphabet, and Microsoft — Should You Be Worried? |
| — | AI companies are likely to experience significant financial and market difficulties in the coming months. resolves 26.11.07 |
bearish · 26.08.09 | The 'dean of valuation' says pain is headed for more AI companies in the coming months |
| — | Damodaran asserts that the current wave of AI capital expenditures represents speculative betting rather than value creation, which will pressure equity valuations downward as profitability remains unproven. resolves 28.08.06 |
bearish · 26.08.07 · GOOGL | Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Google Are 'Collectively Overinvesting' In AI: 'That's Betting, Not Investing,' |
| — | Aswath Damodaran: The discounted cash flow model yields an estimated fair value of $1.22 trillion, representing a 30% discount to the IPO target. resolves 27.02.22 |
bearish · 26.08.06 · SPCX | N0S Research Report: SPCX |
| — | Aswath Damodaran: The current market capitalization requires $483 billion to $678 billion in annual revenue, which is highly improbable. resolves 28.08.05 |
bearish · 26.08.06 · NVDA | N0S Research Report: NVDA |
| — | Aswath Damodaran: Intrinsic value is approximately $768 per share, suggesting a margin of safety against market-priced levels. resolves 28.08.05 |
bullish · 26.08.06 · META | N0S Research Report: META |
| — | Adding pre-profit mega-caps to cap-weighted indices will inevitably depress short-term index earnings and elevate overall portfolio volatility within one year of inclusion. resolves 27.06.18 |
bearish · 26.06.18 · META | SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic: The S&P 500 Inclusion Question and Investment Consequences! |
| — | OpenAI and Anthropic are planning to go public within the next few months, targeting valuations around or above one trillion dollars. resolves 26.12.15 |
bullish · 26.06.18 | The Indexing Question: Should SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic be in the S&P 500? |
| — | Leases for the Colossus AI compute center to Anthropic at $1.25 billion monthly will likely kickstart substantial AI revenue growth starting next fiscal year. resolves 27.06.04 |
bullish · 26.06.04 | Revisiting the SpaceX Valuation: A Post-Prospectus Update! |
| — | Long-term valuation appreciation will materialize if the company successfully captures interplanetary launch markets, achieves broadband parity with fiber optics via satellite constellations, and monetizes secondary AI ventures within five years. resolves 31.06.03 |
bullish · 26.06.04 | The Numbers are in: A Post-Prospectus SpaceX Valuation! |
| — | The total launch business is expected to grow from $30 billion in 2026 to $100 billion in 2036. resolves 36.04.20 |
bullish · 26.04.23 | To Trillion(s) and Beyond: The SpaceX IPO Odyssey |
| — | SpaceX will continue to dominate the launch business with a market share of about 70% by 2036, down from 80%. resolves 36.04.20 |
bearish · 26.04.23 | To Trillion(s) and Beyond: The SpaceX IPO Odyssey |
| — | SpaceX might be the most valuable IPO of all time. resolves 26.10.20 |
bullish · 26.04.23 | To Trillion(s) and Beyond: The SpaceX IPO Odyssey |
| — | The speaker predicts that bullish analysts will use forward pricing with revenues 5-10 years out and pick high-growth peers to argue SpaceX is priced right. resolves 26.10.20 |
bullish · 26.04.23 | To Trillion(s) and Beyond: The SpaceX IPO Odyssey |
| — | The expansion options could add an extra $50 billion in revenues from new markets. resolves 36.04.20 |
bullish · 26.04.23 | To Trillion(s) and Beyond: The SpaceX IPO Odyssey |
| — | SpaceX's revenues will grow to $333 billion in 10 years with a consolidated operating margin of 48%. resolves 36.04.20 |
bullish · 26.04.23 | To Trillion(s) and Beyond: The SpaceX IPO Odyssey |
| — | xAI will target primarily consumer revenues and niche business applications, resulting in a smaller market but with higher margins. resolves 36.04.20 |
bearish · 26.04.23 | To Trillion(s) and Beyond: The SpaceX IPO Odyssey |
| — | The LLM market will continue to grow, with the business application market being larger than consumer. resolves 36.04.20 |
bullish · 26.04.23 | To Trillion(s) and Beyond: The SpaceX IPO Odyssey |
| — | Starlink will continue to have a dominant market share of the satellite internet service business. resolves 36.04.20 |
bullish · 26.04.23 | To Trillion(s) and Beyond: The SpaceX IPO Odyssey |
| — | The oil futures curve suggests the market expects oil price increases to fade over time, with December futures rising less than spot. resolves 26.12.27 |
bearish · 26.04.01 | The Market's Narrative: How Investors are pricing in the Iran War! |
| — | The yield curve became more upward sloping, indicating the market expects inflation to persist. resolves 26.09.28 |
bullish · 26.04.01 | The Market's Narrative: How Investors are pricing in the Iran War! |