Information Technology · resolved 26.02.25: Keeps growing In January 2025, would DeepSeek's cheap AI cut Nvidia's data-center growth? Keeps growing ✓ right 3 on record 75% Pat Gelsinger, Satya Nadella, Jensen Huang Demand falls ✗ 1 on record 25% Jeffrey Emanuel 4 on record · 0 public answers
Information Technology · resolved 26.07.29: Faster growth In April 2025, would Microsoft's fiscal 2026 capex grow more slowly than fiscal 2025's? Slower growth ✗ 2 on record 67% Ed Zitron, Amy Hood Faster growth ✓ right 1 on record 33% Satya Nadella 3 on record · 0 public answers
Information Technology · resolved 25.12.31: No Will AI be smarter than the smartest human by the end of 2025? Yes ✗ 1 on record 50% Elon Musk No ✓ right 1 on record 50% Gary Marcus 2 on record · 0 public answers
Information Technology · resolved 25.02.06: No In January 2025, after DeepSeek R1, would a hyperscaler cut its 2025 AI capex plan? Yes ✗ 0 on record 0% No ✓ right 2 on record 100% Satya Nadella, Mark Zuckerberg 2 on record · 0 public answers
Information Technology · resolved 25.04.30: No In February 2025, after TD Cowen's lease-cancellation note, would Microsoft cut its AI capex plan? Yes ✗ 0 on record 0% No ✓ right 2 on record 100% Brad Smith, Jordan Klein 2 on record · 0 public answers
Information Technology · resolved 02.10.09: Yes, a bubble In 1999, was the dot-com stock market a bubble about to burst? Yes, a bubble ✓ right 1 on record 50% Warren Buffett No, a new era ✗ 1 on record 50% Jim Cramer 2 on record · 0 public answers
Information Technology Is AI a bubble? Yes 5 on record 62% Sam Altman, Bill Gates, Michael Burry +2 more No 3 on record 38% Jim Cramer, David Sacks, Cathie Wood Too early to say 0 on record 0% 8 on record · 0 public answers
Information Technology · resolves 26.12.31 Will AI smarter than any human (AGI) arrive by the end of 2026? Yes 1 on record 50% Elon Musk No 1 on record 50% Gary Marcus 2 on record · 0 public answers
