Brad DeLong
— · journalist
J. Bradford DeLong is an economist and professor of economics at the University of California, Berkeley. He is known for his work in macroeconomics and economic history, and for his long-running economics blog and newsletter.
Sources: bluesky (braddelong.bsky.social) · substack (https://braddelong.substack.com/feed)
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B · Background6of 10 · n=89
E · Expertise8of 10 · n=89
A · Authoritativeness7of 10 · n=89
T · Trustworthiness8of 10 · n=89
S · Source7of 10 · n=89
BEATS 7 of 10 · n=89 · measured 26.10.10
Win rate by category
share of settled calls that proved right, in each categoryNo settled calls yet — a category shows once one of their calls resolves.
Where they stand
their own words, with a date and a sourceNo stances on record yet.
Track record
39 claims · an outcome shows once the claim resolves| Outcome | Claim | Call · when | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | After the winter of 2027, Anthropic (or xAI) could cancel its compute‑rental agreements with 90‑day notice, potentially reducing expenses. resolves 27.01.26 |
bullish · 26.10.28 | My Guesses with Respect to the True State of Anthropic: WEDNESDAY WEALTH |
| — | If the Fed’s assumption that half a percentage point of inflation is transitory proves wrong, the Fed will likely raise rates further. resolves 27.04.25 |
bearish · 26.10.27 | 500,000 “Lines of Code” to Try to Track the Economy: TUESDAY TRENDS & TURMOIL |
| — | Long-run damage will come from policy chaos — random destructive tariffs, attacks on Fed independence, and an immigration crackdown that shrinks the labor force — which will take years to undo and neutralize. resolves 28.10.24 |
bearish · 26.10.25 | JD Vance: “You Don’t Turn the Titanic Around Overnight”: LAUGH OF THE DAY |
| — | China will absolutely have its own satellite constellation, and the risk of competing Indian and European constellations is much higher given Musk's conflict with the Ambanis and the US administration's alienation of Europe. resolves 28.10.24 |
bearish · 26.10.25 | Smartest Thing I Have Seen This Week: Thompson of StraTECHery & Moffett of MoffettNathanson on SpaceX & Bubbles: PODCAST OF THE DAY |
| — | If Trump manipulates the midterm outcome or even comes close and causes widespread chaos, it could create serious disruptions in the bond and equity markets and drive 10-year Treasury yields higher, raising government debt service costs and consumer borrowing rates. resolves 27.01.19 |
bearish · 26.10.21 | CROSSPOST: ROBERT RUBIN: In Six Decades of Public Life, I Never Thought I Would Write This Piece |
| — | A contested or overturned election would hit America's animal spirits, investment, productivity growth, Treasury yields, and the dollar permanently, with consequences echoing long after the political crisis ends. resolves 28.10.20 |
bearish · 26.10.21 | CROSSPOST: ROBERT RUBIN: In Six Decades of Public Life, I Never Thought I Would Write This Piece |
| — | US fiscal sustainability requires Treasury yields below nominal GDP growth; with weak non-AI investment and curtailed immigration, another confidence shock would leave that arithmetic dependent on AI boosting measured GDP growth, which DeLong judges very unlikely. resolves 28.10.20 |
bearish · 26.10.21 | CROSSPOST: ROBERT RUBIN: In Six Decades of Public Life, I Never Thought I Would Write This Piece |
| — | They have put money on a bet that US per capita real GDP growth will stay below 15% in every year through 2033, and are still looking for counterparties who believe in double-digit growth. resolves 33.10.16 |
bearish · 26.10.18 | CROSSPOST: Ben Moll & Alex Imas: Will AI Soon Lead to Double-Digit [Annual Economic] Growth? |
| — | In the next 10-15 years, GDP growth rates upwards of 10% are extremely unlikely; a much more reasonable baseline is 4-5% annual growth, which would already be massive. resolves 36.10.15 |
bearish · 26.10.18 | CROSSPOST: Ben Moll & Alex Imas: Will AI Soon Lead to Double-Digit [Annual Economic] Growth? |
| — | Whatever number of Fed rate hikes you wanted for the rest of 2026 before the CPI print, you should now want one more — e.g., 50bp instead of 25bp, with hikes at the October and December FOMC meetings. resolves 26.12.14 |
bearish · 26.10.15 | An Inflation Report That Is Disappointingly High: CHART OF THE DAY |
| — | Ben Thompson predicts Anthropic will complete its IPO this year, while OpenAI is much more dubious and will not even attempt one this year. resolves 27.05.01 |
bullish · 26.10.13 | CROSSPOST: JOHN GRUBER & BEN THOMPSON: Meanness & Claude |
| — | Google Zero — Google driving zero traffic to anyone else's website by answering questions itself through AI remixing — is coming; being discoverable is no longer the asset, being trusted is. resolves 28.10.08 |
bearish · 26.10.09 | (SEMI-)CROSSPOST/HOISTED: MATTHEW YGLESIAS (2022): What I Learned Co-Founding Vox |
| — | With oil still high and diesel near record levels, inflation will remain elevated, meaning the Federal Reserve will keep short-term rates high — an expectation feeding into long-term rates. resolves 26.12.28 |
bearish · 26.09.29 | CROSSPOST: PAUL KRUGMAN: The Beclowning of Scott Bessent |
| — | Bessent is predicting the imminent collapse of the Iranian economy, possibly within two weeks, under the oil export embargo; Krugman deems this as implausible as his bond-market boasts. resolves 26.10.13 |
bearish · 26.09.29 | CROSSPOST: PAUL KRUGMAN: The Beclowning of Scott Bessent |
| — | DeLong argues Bessent's '3-3-3' targets — 3% real GDP growth, 3 million more barrels of daily oil production, and a 3% deficit — were never attainable: ending net immigration rules out 3% growth, the deficit is twice the target and moving the wrong way, oil output is up only 0.6 million bpd from the 2024 baseline, and forecasts put 2026-27 growth near 2.1%. resolves 27.09.29 |
bearish · 26.09.29 | CROSSPOST: PAUL KRUGMAN: The Beclowning of Scott Bessent |
| — | Baker warns of a 'looming Republican calamity' driven by presidential hubris, vanity, recklessness and the party's abdication of accountability, with the GOP risking handing power back to the Democrats. resolves 27.04.12 |
bearish · 26.09.24 | Gerard Baker: BULLSHIT ARTIST OF THE DAY |
| — | Muse may fall back out of the App Store top 20 next month, or it may get blocked everywhere as already happened at Amazon, which would make the moat-less point even more clearly. resolves 26.10.22 |
bearish · 26.09.22 · META | FaceBook’s Muse on the Apple iOS App Store: CHART OF THE DAY |
| — | New information this week increased DeLong's confidence that AI is unlikely to be a hyperprofits engine for research labs with attached companies monetizing calculations run in datacenters by simulated neural networks — 'Real Technology, Phantom Profits.' resolves 30.09.20 |
bearish · 26.09.21 | Bluesky posts by Brad DeLong (2026-09-21 – 2026-09-21) |
| — | Will anyone other than NVIDIA ever show us real money from the AI datacenter buildout? Probably not — NVIDIA is likely the only company that actually gets paid from the buildout. resolves 36.09.18 |
bearish · 26.09.21 | Real Technology, Phantom Profits: Who Is Likely to Actually Get Paid for the AI Buildout?: MONDAY MAMLMS |
| — | Under the same consensus, hyperscaler capital expenditures grow by $500 billion less than operating cash flow, leaving roughly $500 billion of free cash flow by 2030. resolves 31.09.20 |
bullish · 26.09.21 | HyperScaler Operating Cash Flow “Consensus” Forecast: CHART OF THE DAY |
| — | The credit story in hyperscalers rests on a single consensus assumption: that their operating cash flow triples from $600 billion to $2 trillion by 2030. resolves 31.09.20 |
bullish · 26.09.21 | HyperScaler Operating Cash Flow “Consensus” Forecast: CHART OF THE DAY |
| — | If this post gets attention, the unrounded floats will probably stop lasting very long, as Anthropic would likely round them and close the side channel, making the author's Claude Counter extension slightly worse. resolves 26.12.18 |
bearish · 26.09.19 | CROSSPOST: SHELLAC: Suspiciously Precise Floats, or, How I Got Claude’s Real Limits |
| — | The Stimson analysis predicts Gulf governments will seek greater clarity from Washington over consultation, protection, and risk-sharing, since a US base is an instrument of American power projection but not automatically a defense guarantee for its host. resolves 27.03.17 |
bearish · 26.09.18 | (SEMI-)CROSSPOST: RICK PERLSTEIN: Bush’s War Is Finally Over: Al Qaeda Has Won |
| — | The administration's inability to recognize it's losing means the losses will likely compound through November. resolves 26.11.09 |
bearish · 26.09.10 | CROSSPOST: DAN DREZNER: The Trump Administration Strategy Fail |
| — | Torsten Slok predicts that long-term interest rates could be a lot lower in six months than today. resolves 27.02.25 |
bearish · 26.08.29 | Heading for a Large, Rapid Fall in Interest Rates?: CHART OF THE DAY |
| — | Nvidia said revenue will grow about 70% next fiscal year, easing concerns that AI spending is poised to lose momentum. resolves 28.01.09 |
bullish · 26.08.27 · NVDA | NVIDIA Earnings: CHART OF THE DAY |
| — | Nvidia expects gross margin to bottom out in the fiscal fourth quarter at 71% to 72%, down from roughly 74% in the current quarter. resolves 27.01.24 |
bearish · 26.08.27 · NVDA | NVIDIA Earnings: CHART OF THE DAY |
| — | Gary Marcus thinks that Sam Altman and OpenAI have just thrown in the towel on capturing the frontier-model lead in the next training cycle round. resolves 27.02.15 |
bearish · 26.08.19 | More Signs of a Bubble Peak: BREAKING NEWS WATCH OF THE DAY |
| — | The shift from equity to debt financing of datacenters is a powerful sign of an approaching bubble peak. resolves 27.08.19 |
bearish · 26.08.19 | More Signs of a Bubble Peak: BREAKING NEWS WATCH OF THE DAY |
| — | If the chip purchasers financed by private equity do not make their amortization payments, the cash flow from the datacenters and chips will be insufficient, and the debt will be worthless. resolves 28.08.18 |
bearish · 26.08.19 · NVDA | Can We Sell Equity Financing of the DataCenter Build-Out at a Debt Price?: FINANCIAL OVEREXUBERANCE OF THE DAY |
| — | The gatekeeping question is whether Amazon, Google, Facebook, and Microsoft will allow Anthropic and OpenAI to make money, and the likely answer is they will fight them tooth-and-nail, just as Microsoft made Netscape never make money. resolves 28.08.18 |
bearish · 26.08.19 · NVDA | Can We Sell Equity Financing of the DataCenter Build-Out at a Debt Price?: FINANCIAL OVEREXUBERANCE OF THE DAY |
| — | Warsh would be prepared to raise interest rates at September's meeting if inflation readings released in coming weeks are hot, and markets ratchet up their expectations for increases in borrowing costs. resolves 26.11.14 |
bullish · 26.08.16 | The Fed Chair Who Whispers: Kevin Warsh’s “Lean Messaging” Is Anything But: LAUGH OF THE DAY |
| — | Gas-and-diesel momentum will push up next month's inflation. resolves 26.09.11 |
bullish · 26.08.12 | Bluesky posts by Brad DeLong (2026-08-12 – 2026-08-12) |
| — | The energy index declined 1.5% in July, but gasoline prices climbed in the second half of the month, setting up momentum for next month's CPI. resolves 26.09.11 |
bullish · 26.08.12 | 2026-08-12 0.1% 1-Month 3.4% 12-Month Inflation CPI Release: CHART OF THE DAY |
| — | Diesel prices rose considerably faster than gasoline, which will feed into freight, food and services costs. resolves 26.11.10 |
bullish · 26.08.12 | 2026-08-12 0.1% 1-Month 3.4% 12-Month Inflation CPI Release: CHART OF THE DAY |
| — | The courts are likely to sink the forced-labor tariff rationale, but in the two years it takes to happen, the tariffs will be collected. resolves 28.08.09 |
bearish · 26.08.10 | Bluesky posts by Brad DeLong (2026-06-30 – 2026-08-10) |
| — | Internal-combustion car sales have fallen from 79 to 50 million a year in a decade, but on current trends gasoline engines will still power half of new cars and two-thirds of cars on the road by 2036. resolves 36.08.07 |
bearish · 26.08.10 | Bluesky posts by Brad DeLong (2026-06-30 – 2026-08-10) |
| — | Road-fuel demand worldwide is likely to have peaked by 2030. resolves 31.08.09 |
bearish · 26.08.10 | Late Summer for the Internal Combustion-Engine Vehicle Sector: CHART OF THE DAY |
| — | On current trends, internal combustion-engine vehicles will still be close to half of all new sales and some two-thirds of the total on-road vehicle fleet come 2036. resolves 36.08.07 |
bearish · 26.08.10 | Late Summer for the Internal Combustion-Engine Vehicle Sector: CHART OF THE DAY |