Howard Marks
Fund Manager · investor
Howard Marks is co-founder and co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management, a global investment firm specializing in alternative investments. He is known for his investment memos and books on market cycles, risk, and value investing.
Sources: blog (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memos) · x (HowardMarksBook)
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B · Background10of 10 · n=16
E · Expertise9of 10 · n=16
A · Authoritativeness10of 10 · n=16
T · Trustworthiness10of 10 · n=16
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BEATS 10 of 10 · n=16 · measured 26.10.21
Win rate by category
share of settled calls that proved right, in each categoryNo settled calls yet — a category shows once one of their calls resolves.
Where they stand
their own words, with a date and a sourceNo stances on record yet.
Track record
9 claims · an outcome shows once the claim resolves| Outcome | Claim | Call · when | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | Howard Marks: Paying 40x earnings for great companies can lead to long periods of dead money if growth decelerates. resolves 28.10.03 |
bearish · 26.10.04 · LLY | N0S Research Report: LLY |
| — | The AI build-out, estimated by McKinsey at over $5 trillion worldwide through 2030 for AI-related data centers, combined with roughly $2 trillion of new net Treasury issuance, will keep demand for capital strong, putting upward pressure on yields and arguing against a decline in interest rates anytime soon. resolves 27.09.22 |
bearish · 26.09.22 | The Memo by Howard Marks: Shall We Repeal the Laws of Economics – Part III |
| — | Howard Marks: The current AI sector is an 'inflection bubble' where genuine technological progress is driving speculative, debt-financed spending that requires caution. resolves 27.02.22 |
bearish · 26.08.06 · META | N0S Research Report: META |
| — | The sea change: the days of ultra-low and secularly declining interest rates are over, and investment strategies that benefited most from them will do less well in the future. resolves 28.04.08 |
bearish · 26.04.09 | The Memo by Howard Marks: What's Going on in Private Credit? |
| — | There are parallels to the late 1980s/early 90s high-yield market; direct lending will be fine, even great, but it may have to go through a credit cycle to get to a better place. resolves 28.04.08 |
bullish · 26.04.09 | The Memo by Howard Marks: What's Going on in Private Credit? |
| — | Investors' newly elevated skepticism is likely to give Oaktree investment opportunities in the days ahead that are much better than those passed up in the recent period. resolves 26.07.08 |
bullish · 26.04.09 | The Memo by Howard Marks: What's Going on in Private Credit? |
| — | Better buying opportunities will come in the months ahead as risk aversion returns. resolves 26.09.20 |
bearish · 26.03.24 | The Memo by Howard Marks: Reflections on Oaktree Conference 2026 with Howard Marks |
| — | AI can rapidly put people out of work for whom it will take years to find and be trained for new careers; the speed of change will vastly outstrip society's ability to adjust. resolves 27.02.26 |
bearish · 26.02.26 | The Memo by Howard Marks: AI Hurtles Ahead |
| — | If Claude Code handles even 30-50% of structured, pattern-based work, that's a conservative estimate for near-term capability, you're looking at $150-250 billion in annual labor value migrating to AI compute. resolves 27.02.26 |
bullish · 26.02.26 | The Memo by Howard Marks: AI Hurtles Ahead |