Fund Manager · investor
Ray Dalio is the founder of Bridgewater Associates, one of the world's largest hedge funds, and served as its co-chief investment officer. He is known for his writings and commentary on macroeconomic trends, debt cycles, and the changing world order.
Sources: bluesky (raydalioofficial.bsky.social) · substack (https://raydalio.substack.com/feed) · x (RayDalio)
BEATS 8 of 10 · n=46 · measured 26.10.21
No settled calls yet — a category shows once one of their calls resolves.
Obviously the AI boom that is now in the early stages of a bubble had a big effect on everythingYes · said 26.01.06 on X post (2025 review), via Fortune · source
| Outcome | Claim | Call · when | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | A borrowing boom tied to artificial intelligence is on track to collide with a surge in US debt supply, threatening to push up the cost of money. resolves 27.10.18 |
bearish · 26.10.18 | Billionaire Ray Dalio Warns AI Borrowing Boom Is Colliding With $4,400,000,000,000 US Debt Wave |
| — | Ray Dalio warns the market is heading for a $4.4 trillion fight for capital as government debt supply competes for buyers, which could send borrowing costs surging. resolves 27.05.03 |
bearish · 26.10.15 | Ray Dalio warns the market is heading for a $4.4 trillion fight for capital that could send borrowing costs surging |
| — | It appears very likely that there is and will be much too much supply of financial assets — both debt and equity — relative to the demand for them. resolves 28.10.12 |
bearish · 26.10.13 | The Numbers Behind the Bond Bear Market (with a Look at Equities) |
| — | The AI bubble is close to bursting given that rates are going higher and hyperscalers are tapping the market too much. resolves 27.04.07 |
bearish · 26.10.09 | Global Investment Outlook: Markets, Geopolitics, and the New Capital Cycle | Asia Summit 2026 |
| — | Ray Dalio said the AI bubble is 'close' to bursting. resolves 27.01.07 |
bearish · 26.10.09 | Ray Dalio Says AI Bubble Is ‘Close’ to Bursting as Debt and Rising Rates Raise Red Flags |
| — | Ray Dalio said the artificial intelligence bubble is nearing the point where it may burst. resolves 27.01.05 |
bearish · 26.10.07 | Billionaire Ray Dalio Warns AI Bubble Could Soon Burst |
| — | Ray Dalio said the AI bubble is near bursting. resolves 27.01.05 |
bearish · 26.10.07 | Will US stock market face a major shift? Michael Burry warns of 270 days and Ray Dalio says AI bubble is near bursting - what investors need to know |
| — | Michael Burry warned that the US stock market faces a major shift, pointing to a roughly 270-day window. resolves 27.07.04 |
bearish · 26.10.07 | Will US stock market face a major shift? Michael Burry warns of 270 days and Ray Dalio says AI bubble is near bursting - what investors need to know |
| — | Dalio warned that the AI bubble is nearing a bursting point, driven by rising interest rates and the need to turn wealth into cash. resolves 27.04.05 |
bearish · 26.10.07 | Dalio says we’re nearing a point where AI bubble may burst |
| — | Ray Dalio warned that artificial intelligence is a 'classic bubble' that is nearing a bursting point. resolves 27.10.07 |
bearish · 26.10.07 | Dalio Says We're Nearing Point Where AI Bubble May Burst... |
| — | Dalio warned the AI bubble is nearing a bursting point, driven by rising interest rates and the need to turn wealth into cash. resolves 27.04.05 |
bearish · 26.10.07 | Billionaire Ray Dalio says we’re nearing point where AI bubble may burst |
| — | Ray Dalio warns that artificial intelligence is a 'classic bubble' that is nearing its bursting point. resolves 27.10.07 |
bearish · 26.10.07 | AI a 'classic bubble' that is nearing bursting point, warns Ray Dalio |
| — | Ray Dalio believes the AI trade is running out of runway and the bubble is nearing its bursting point. resolves 27.04.05 |
bearish · 26.10.07 | Ray Dalio warns AI bubble is nearing its bursting point as rates rise |
| — | Ray Dalio predicts the world will experience a debt crisis within the next two years. resolves 28.10.05 |
bearish · 26.10.06 | Ray Dalio believes we are going to experience a debt crisis in the next two years. Here's what he's investing in. |
| — | Dalio predicts a potential US debt crisis could materialize within the next three years. resolves 29.10.05 |
bearish · 26.10.06 | Ray Dalio Warns of US Debt Crisis Within Three Years |
| — | Ray Dalio expects the US to face a debt crisis within the next three years. resolves 29.10.05 |
bearish · 26.10.06 | Ray Dalio predicts a debt crisis within 3 years as we're 'approaching our limits' |
| — | Ray Dalio expects the US to face a debt crisis within the next three years. resolves 29.10.05 |
bearish · 26.10.06 | Ray Dalio predicts a debt crisis within 3 years as we're 'approaching our limits' |
| — | Dalio warns that AI investment is fueling a 'devastating' bubble that will end badly for markets. resolves 28.09.21 |
bearish · 26.09.22 | Bulls and doomers are both right, says Ray Dalio—AI will be ‘miraculous’ for productivity but fuel a ‘devastating’ bubble and wealth inequality |
| — | With new U.S. sanctions for countries that trade with Iran, U.S. global power is facing a big test; over the next few weeks we will see which countries follow the U.S. plan, which don't, and how the U.S. responds. resolves 26.10.04 |
bearish · 26.09.04 | X posts by Ray Dalio (2026-08-31 – 2026-09-04) |
| — | Spending cuts and tax revenue increases by 5% each and interest rates falling by 1-1.5% would lead to interest payments lower by 1-2% of GDP and stimulate asset prices and economic activity. resolves 36.08.18 |
bullish · 26.08.21 | How Countries Go Broke: The Dynamic Behind What is Happening Now |
| — | Projections show debt in 10 years will be $55-60T (7 times revenue) with $25-30T additional borrowing. resolves 36.08.18 |
bullish · 26.08.21 | How Countries Go Broke: The Dynamic Behind What is Happening Now |
| — | A formalized modern tribute architecture will replace existing Western-led regional security frameworks across Asia within President Xi's remaining political tenure. resolves 31.06.17 |
bullish · 26.06.18 | The Tribute System: The New World Order |
| — | China will assert operational control over Taiwan through sustained economic leverage and strategic coercion calibrated to avoid triggering direct kinetic warfare. resolves 30.06.17 |
bullish · 26.06.18 | The Tribute System: The New World Order |
| — | Asian allied states will progressively deepen diplomatic and economic alignment with Beijing to offset expected reductions in US security guarantees. resolves 29.06.17 |
bullish · 26.06.18 | The Tribute System: The New World Order |
| — | Potential geopolitical conflicts, shifting tax regimes targeting concentrated wealth, and emerging regulatory pushback against AI pose material downside risks to tech-heavy portfolios. resolves 28.06.14 |
bearish · 26.06.15 | Investment Principles: What Should You Do Under Existing Conditions? |
| — | Real returns for broad equities over the next 5 to 10 years are projected to fall between -5% and -10%, driven by stretched valuations, elevated bubble indicators, and weak institutional positioning. resolves 31.06.14 |
bearish · 26.06.15 | Investment Principles: What Should You Do Under Existing Conditions? |
| — | Investors who fail to adopt cutting-edge principled thinking combined with contemporary AI technologies risk losing their competitive edge in increasingly efficient markets. resolves 27.06.10 |
bearish · 26.06.10 | Principled Thinking and AI Need to Go Together |
| — | It takes roughly a decade or more for debt burdens to fall and economic activity to get back to normal after a deleveraging, hence the term 'lost decade'. resolves 28.04.21 |
bullish · 18.04.24 | Invest Like The Best: STI 13: Billionaire Investor Ray Dalio’s How the Economy Works. |
