Real Estate · resolves 08.06.30 · closed

In 2005, was US housing in a bubble that would crash nationwide?

Would US house prices fall on a national basis for the first time since the Depression?

Outcome: Yes, a crash · resolved 08.06.30 · S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index (CSUSHPINSA, via FRED): down ~16% from peak by June 2008, ~27% at the 2012 trough. · a stance dated before that is a call, marked right or wrong below

Where the experts stand

Yes, a crash

1 on record 25%

No, prices stabilize

3 on record 75%

Where the public stands

Yes, a crash

0 answers —

No, prices stabilize

0 answers —

0 public answers · one per account Closed to new answers.

Yes, a crash — 1 on record Right

Peter SchiffBEATS —

These sky-high real estate prices are going to come crashing back down to earth.

said 06.12.01 on Fox News Channel · source

No, prices stabilize — 3 on record Wrong

David LereahBEATS —

All the doom and gloom forecasts of a housing debacle are not only irresponsible but also downright wrong.

said 05.08.01 on National Association of Realtors stateme · source

Ben BernankeBEATS —

We've never had a decline in housing prices on a nationwide basis. What I think is more likely is that house prices will slow, maybe stabilize.

said 05.07.29 on CNBC interview · source

Alan ReynoldsBEATS —

Although the overworked analogy between housing and tech stocks sounds dramatic, it is quite preposterous.

said 05.01.09 on The Washington Times op-ed · source

How it resolves · 08.06.30 · Resolves Yes if the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index falls more than 10% from its July 2006 peak. · by S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index (CSUSHPINSA, via FRED): down ~16% from peak by June 2008, ~27% at the 2012 trough. Dispute a quote