Financials · resolves 08.09.15 · closed

In 2007, was the subprime mortgage problem 'contained'?

Would subprime losses stay contained or spread into a full financial crisis?

Outcome: Full-blown crisis · resolved 08.09.15 · Lehman Brothers Chapter 11 filing, 2008-09-15 (US Bankruptcy Court SDNY); S&P 500 fell 57% from 2007-10-09 to 2009-03-09 (S&P Dow Jones Indices); NBER recession Dec 2007-Jun 2009. · a stance dated before that is a call, marked right or wrong below

Where the experts stand

Contained

2 on record 100%

Full-blown crisis

0 on record 0%

Where the public stands

Contained

0 answers —

Full-blown crisis

0 answers —

0 public answers · one per account Closed to new answers.

Contained — 2 on record Wrong

Chuck PrinceBEATS —

When the music stops, in terms of liquidity, things will be complicated. But as long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance. We're still dancing.

said 07.07.09 on Financial Times interview · source

Ben BernankeBEATS —

At this juncture, however, the impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime market seems likely to be contained.

said 07.03.28 on Testimony before the Joint Economic Comm · source

Full-blown crisis — 0 on record Right

No one on record yet.

How it resolves · 08.09.15 · Resolves 'Full-blown crisis' if a top-5 US investment bank fails or is rescued and the S&P 500 falls more than 40% from its October 2007 peak. · by Lehman Brothers Chapter 11 filing, 2008-09-15 (US Bankruptcy Court SDNY); S&P 500 fell 57% from 2007-10-09 to 2009-03-09 (S&P Dow Jones Indices); NBER recession Dec 2007-Jun 2009. Dispute a quote