Financials · resolves 19.12.31 · closed

In 2011, would the bond bubble burst - 10-year Treasury above 4% by 2019?

As big names called Treasuries a bubble, would the 10-year US Treasury yield climb above 4% at any point before the end of 2019?

▶ N0S Investor's videos on this

Outcome: No · resolved 19.12.31 · FRED DGS10 (Federal Reserve Board H.15) · a stance dated before that is a call, marked right or wrong below

Where the experts stand

Yes

3 on record 60%

2 on record 40%

Where the public stands

Yes

0 answers —

0 public answers · one per account Closed to new answers.

Yes — 3 on record Wrong

Jamie DimonBEATS —

I think rates should be 4% today. You better be prepared to deal with rates 5% or higher - it's a higher probability than most people think.

said 18.08.04 on Aspen Institute gala · source

Alan GreenspanBEATS —

We are experiencing a bubble, not in stock prices but in bond prices.

said 17.07.31 on Bloomberg interview · source

Bill GrossBEATS —

10-year treasuries should be rewarding investors with a 4% type of yield. We are being under rewarded now at 3.5%.

said 11.03.11 on Fortune interview · source

No — 2 on record Right

Lacy HuntBEATS —

My view is that the secular low in long treasury bonds is not at hand - doesn't mean that rates cannot go up, but they're not going to be able to stay up.

said 17.05.11 on MacroVoices podcast · source

Gary ShillingBEATS —

I'm not ready to say the bond rally of a lifetime is over.

said 13.06.03 on The Globe and Mail interview · source

How it resolves · 19.12.31 · Resolves Yes if the 10-year constant-maturity Treasury yield closes above 4.00% on any day from 2011-03-11 to 2019-12-31; its highest close was about 3.24% (Nov 2018) and it ended 2019 at 1.92%. · by FRED DGS10 (Federal Reserve Board H.15) Dispute a quote