Economics · resolves 15.12.31 · closed

In 2012, would Greece leave the euro by 2015?

At the height of the 2011-2012 euro crisis, would Greece exit the euro area (or the euro break up) by the end of 2015?

Outcome: No · resolved 15.12.31 · European Central Bank / Eurostat euro-area membership · a stance dated before that is a call, marked right or wrong below

Where the experts stand

Yes

3 on record 60%

2 on record 40%

Where the public stands

Yes

0 answers —

0 public answers · one per account Closed to new answers.

Yes — 3 on record Wrong

Alan GreenspanBEATS —

I think it's just a matter of time before everyone recognizes that parting is the best strategy.

said 15.02.08 on BBC Radio 4 · source

Willem BuiterBEATS —

We now believe the probability that Greece will leave EMU in the next 12-18 months is about 90%

said 12.07.26 on Citi research note · source

Nouriel RoubiniBEATS —

To escape, Greece must now begin an orderly default, voluntarily exit the eurozone and return to the drachma.

said 11.09.19 on Financial Times column · source

No — 2 on record Right

Mario DraghiBEATS —

Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. And believe me, it will be enough.

said 12.07.26 on Speech, Global Investment Conference, Lo · source

George SorosBEATS —

the likelihood is that the euro will survive because a breakup would be devastating.

said 12.06.02 on Speech, Festival of Economics, Trento · source

How it resolves · 15.12.31 · Resolves Yes if Greece ceased to be a euro-area member state on or before 2015-12-31; it remained one of the 19 members. · by European Central Bank / Eurostat euro-area membership Dispute a quote