Macro Trends · resolves 17.12.31 · closed

In 2016, would China suffer a hard landing by 2017?

Amid the 2015-2016 market rout, would China's economy crash - GDP growth below 4% or a 30%+ yuan devaluation - by end-2017?

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Outcome: No · resolved 17.12.31 · National Bureau of Statistics of China; PBOC / FRED DEXCHUS · a stance dated before that is a call, marked right or wrong below

Where the experts stand

Yes

2 on record 67%

1 on record 33%

Where the public stands

Yes

0 answers —

0 public answers · one per account Closed to new answers.

Yes — 2 on record Wrong

Kyle BassBEATS —

What we are witnessing is the resetting of the largest macro imbalance the world has ever seen.

said 16.02.10 on Hayman Capital investor letter · source

George SorosBEATS —

A hard landing is practically unavoidable.

said 16.01.21 on Bloomberg Television, Davos · source

No — 1 on record Right

Stephen RoachBEATS —

The math does not suggest that you're going to get a hard landing.

said 16.03.01 on Yale SOM debate · source

How it resolves · 17.12.31 · Resolves Yes if NBS reports annual GDP growth below 4% for 2016 or 2017, or the yuan loses 30%+ against the dollar; growth was 6.7% (2016) and 6.9% (2017) and the yuan fell about 6.5% in 2016 then rose in 2017. · by National Bureau of Statistics of China; PBOC / FRED DEXCHUS Dispute a quote