Macro Trends · resolves 22.07.13 · closed

In 2021, was the surge in US inflation 'transitory'?

Would the 2021 jump in US consumer prices fade within months, or persist?

Outcome: Not transitory · resolved 22.07.13 · BLS Consumer Price Index: 12-month CPI-U above 5% from May 2021 through February 2023, peaking at 9.1% in June 2022 (released 2022-07-13). · a stance dated before that is a call, marked right or wrong below

Where the experts stand

Transitory

3 on record 100%

Not transitory

0 on record 0%

Where the public stands

Transitory

0 answers —

Not transitory

0 answers —

0 public answers · one per account Closed to new answers.

Transitory — 3 on record Wrong

Cathie WoodFund Manager · BEATS 5

Velocity still is falling.

said 21.10.25 on X · source

Janet YellenBEATS —

I believe that they're transitory, but that doesn't mean they'll go away over the next several months.

said 21.10.05 on CNBC Squawk Box · source

Jerome PowellBEATS —

From long experience we expect the inflation effects of these increases to be transitory.

said 21.08.27 on Speech, Jackson Hole Economic Symposium · source

Not transitory — 0 on record Right

No one on record yet.

How it resolves · 22.07.13 · Resolves 'Not transitory' if 12-month CPI inflation stays above 5% for at least twelve consecutive months. · by BLS Consumer Price Index: 12-month CPI-U above 5% from May 2021 through February 2023, peaking at 9.1% in June 2022 (released 2022-07-13). Dispute a quote