Economics · resolves 23.12.31 · closed

In 2022, would the US enter a recession in 2023?

With the Fed hiking fast, would the US economy fall into a recession during calendar 2023?

Outcome: No · resolved 23.12.31 · NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee; BEA GDP · a stance dated before that is a call, marked right or wrong below

Where the experts stand

Yes

3 on record 60%

2 on record 40%

Where the public stands

Yes

0 answers —

0 public answers · one per account Closed to new answers.

Yes — 3 on record Wrong

Michael BurryFund Manager · BEATS 8

We are likely to see CPI lower, possibly negative in 2H 2023, and the US in recession by any definition.

said 23.01.02 on X · source

David RosenbergBEATS —

The recession's just starting.

said 23.02.07 on MarketWatch interview · source

Jamie DimonBEATS —

That hurricane is right out there down the road coming our way. You better brace yourself.

said 22.06.01 on AllianceBernstein conference · source

No — 2 on record Right

Janet YellenBEATS —

You don't have a recession when you have 500,000 jobs and the lowest unemployment rate in more than 50 years.

said 23.02.06 on ABC Good Morning America · source

Jan HatziusBEATS —

The U.S. will avoid a recession and instead continue progressing toward a soft landing.

said 22.12.28 on Goldman Sachs research note · source

How it resolves · 23.12.31 · Resolves Yes if the NBER dates a business-cycle peak in 2023; it dated none, and real GDP grew 2.5% in 2023. · by NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee; BEA GDP Dispute a quote