Information Technology · resolves 25.04.30 · closed

In February 2025, after TD Cowen's lease-cancellation note, would Microsoft cut its AI capex plan?

On 2025-02-24 TD Cowen reported that Microsoft had cancelled US data-center leases worth a couple of hundred megawatts, and read it as a possible oversupply. Microsoft had said it would spend about $80B on AI data centers in fiscal 2025.

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Outcome: No · resolved 25.04.30 · https://www.cfodive.com/news/microsoft-capex-grow-slower-rate-cfo-ai/746947/ · a stance dated before that is a call, marked right or wrong below

Where the experts stand

Yes

0 on record 0%

2 on record 100%

Where the public stands

Yes

0 answers —

0 public answers · one per account Closed to new answers.

Yes — 0 on record Wrong

No one on record yet.

No — 2 on record Right

Jordan KleinBEATS —

To me, this all looks and sounds like business as usual. A company this large and with $80 billion of annual spend has the right to move in and out of data center leases

said 25.02.24 on Mizuho note (via Bloomberg) · source

Brad SmithBEATS —

In FY 2025, Microsoft is on track to invest approximately $80 billion to build out AI-enabled datacenters

said 25.01.03 on Microsoft On the Issues blog · source

How it resolves · 25.04.30 · Yes if, on its fiscal Q3 2025 call (2025-04-30), Microsoft lowered its roughly $80B fiscal-2025 capex plan or said fiscal-2026 capex would fall. Actual: it did neither; CFO Amy Hood said FY2026 capex would keep growing (at a lower rate), and fiscal 2025 capex including finance leases ended at about $88.2B ($20.0B + $22.6B + $21.4B + $24.2B). · by Microsoft fiscal Q3 2025 earnings call, 2025-04-30 Dispute a quote