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Information Technology · resolves 26.02.25 · closed

In January 2025, would DeepSeek's cheap AI cut Nvidia's data-center growth?

DeepSeek's R1 model, reportedly trained with far less compute, wiped about $590B off Nvidia's market value on 27 January 2025. Would cheaper AI mean fewer Nvidia chips, or more demand?

▶ N0S Investor's videos on this

Outcome: Keeps growing · resolved 26.02.25 · https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581026000019/q4fy26pr.htm · a stance dated before that is a call, marked right or wrong below

Where the experts stand
Keeps growing
3 on record 75%
Demand falls
1 on record 25%
Where the public stands
Keeps growing
0 answers —
Demand falls
0 answers —
0 public answers · one per account Closed to new answers.

Keeps growing — 3 on record Right

Satya NadellaExecutive · BEATS 8
Jevons paradox strikes again! As AI gets more efficient and accessible, we will see its use skyrocket, turning it into a commodity we just can't get enough of.
said 25.01.27 on LinkedIn / X post · source
Jensen HuangExecutive · BEATS 5
Customers are anxious and impatient to get their Blackwell systems.
said 25.02.26 on Nvidia Q4 FY2025 earnings call · source
Pat GelsingerBEATS —
The markets are getting it wrong, this will make AI much more broadly deployed.
said 25.01.27 on X post, via Fortune · source

Demand falls — 1 on record Wrong

This suggests the entire industry has been massively over-provisioning compute resources. ... Because whatever you thought you needed before these model releases, it's now a lot less.
said 25.01.25 on Blog: The Short Case for Nvidia · source
How it resolves · 26.02.25 · Resolves 'Keeps growing' if Nvidia's fiscal 2026 (year to January 2026) data-center revenue exceeds fiscal 2025's (about $115B). What happened: fiscal 2026 data-center revenue was a record $193.7B, up 68%; Q4 was $62.3B, up 75%. · by Nvidia Q4 and fiscal 2026 earnings release (Form 8-K) Dispute a quote