Financials · resolves 25.12.31 · closed

Did the S&P 500 fall into a bear market (20% below its record close) in 2025?

Robert Kiyosaki warned in March 2025 that the biggest crash in history was under way; Tom Lee called the odds of a V-shaped recovery extremely high. The April 2025 tariff sell-off took the index close to, but not past, the 20% line.

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Outcome: No · resolved 25.12.31 · https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500 (record close 6,144.15 on 2025-02-19; lowest later close 4,982.77 on 2025-04-08 = -18.9%; 2025-12-31 close 6,845.50) · a stance dated before that is a call, marked right or wrong below

Where the experts stand

Yes

1 on record 50%

Where the public stands

Yes

0 answers —

0 public answers · one per account Closed to new answers.

Yes — 1 on record Wrong

Robert KiyosakiBEATS —

THE EVERYTHING BUBBLE is bursting. I am afraid this crash may be the biggest in history.

said 25.03.11 on X post · source

No — 1 on record Right

Tom LeeBEATS —

the odds of a V-shaped recovery in stocks are extremely high

said 25.03.27 on CNBC, via FS Insight · source

How it resolves · 25.12.31 · Yes if any S&P 500 daily close in calendar 2025 was 20% or more below the highest prior daily close; otherwise No. · by FRED SP500 (S&P Dow Jones Indices), https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500 Dispute a quote