Macro Trends · resolves 20.03.23 · closed

In February 2020, would COVID-19 crash markets and shut down the US?

Was the coronavirus 'contained' or about to trigger a market crash and lockdowns?

Outcome: Crash and lockdowns · resolved 20.03.23 · S&P Dow Jones Indices: S&P 500 fell 33.9% from 2020-02-19 to 2020-03-23; Proclamation 9994 national emergency 2020-03-13 (Federal Register). · a stance dated before that is a call, marked right or wrong below

Where the experts stand

Contained / overblown

3 on record 75%

Crash and lockdowns

1 on record 25%

Where the public stands

Contained / overblown

0 answers —

Crash and lockdowns

0 answers —

0 public answers · one per account Closed to new answers.

Contained / overblown — 3 on record Wrong

Elon MuskExecutive · BEATS 6

The coronavirus panic is dumb

said 20.03.06 on X · source

Donald TrumpBEATS —

When you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that's a pretty good job we've done.

said 20.02.26 on White House press conference · source

Larry KudlowBEATS —

We have contained this. I won't say airtight, but it's pretty close to airtight.

said 20.02.25 on CNBC 'The Exchange' · source

Crash and lockdowns — 1 on record Right

Bill AckmanFund Manager · BEATS 7

Hell is coming.

said 20.03.18 on CNBC 'Halftime Report' · source

How it resolves · 20.03.23 · Resolves 'Crash and lockdowns' if the S&P 500 falls more than 30% from its February 2020 high and a US national emergency is declared. · by S&P Dow Jones Indices: S&P 500 fell 33.9% from 2020-02-19 to 2020-03-23; Proclamation 9994 national emergency 2020-03-13 (Federal Register). Dispute a quote