Executive · executive
Elon Musk is a business magnate and investor who serves as CEO of Tesla and SpaceX and owns X (formerly Twitter). He is known for his leadership in electric vehicles, commercial spaceflight, and other technology ventures.
Sources: —
BEATS 6 of 10 · n=2 · measured 26.09.06
I think by the end of this year, we might have AI that is smarter than any human.Yes · said 26.01.22 on World Economic Forum, Davos · source
By the end of next year, I think we'll be selling humanoid robots to the public.Yes · said 26.01.22 on World Economic Forum, Davos · source
The normal internal plan calls for roughly 10,000 Optimus robots to be built this year.Yes · said 25.01.29 on Tesla Q4 2024 earnings call · source
My guess is that we'll have AI that is smarter than any one human probably around the end of next yearYes · said 24.04.08 on X Spaces (with Nicolai Tangen) · source
The coronavirus panic is dumbContained / overblown · said 20.03.06 on X · source
Next year for sure, we'll have over a million robotaxis on the road.Yes · said 19.04.22 on Tesla Autonomy Day · source
Tesla will be profitable & cash flow+ in Q3 & Q4, so obv no need to raise money.No · said 18.04.13 on X · source
| Outcome | Claim | Call · when | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | Elon Musk set an ambitious goal for Tesla to produce 5 million vehicles annually by 2030. resolves 32.10.21 |
bullish · 26.10.23 · TSLA | Musk and Tesla Target a Big 2030 Milestone |
| — | Elon Musk said he would retaliate against any Democrats who investigate his companies if they win control of Congress. resolves 26.11.22 |
bearish · 26.10.23 · TSLA | Elon Musk threatens to hit back at Democrats as his billion-dollar business empire faces potential probes after midterms |
| — | Elon Musk warned Wednesday that he would fight back against Democrats who are reportedly planning to target him with investigations if they gain control of the House after the midterms. resolves 26.11.21 |
bearish · 26.10.22 | Elon Musk vows to fight back if Democrats investigate him after midterms: ‘Live by the sword, die by the sword’ |
| — | Musk claimed Terafab would probably rank among the top 20 countries by economic value. resolves 36.10.18 |
bullish · 26.10.21 · TSLA | Elon Musk Breaks Silence On Plans For A School For 10,000 Robots & Says Terafab Would Probably Rank Among The Top 20 Countries By Economic Value |
| — | Elon Musk projects his AI operation will be running on at least 13 gigawatts of compute by the end of next year. resolves 27.10.20 |
bullish · 26.10.20 | Musk projects at least 13 gigawatts of AI compute by end of next year |
| — | He suggested that SpaceX's future revenue could exceed the previously stated $28.5 trillion TAM, indicating a higher valuation upside. resolves 28.10.18 |
bullish · 26.10.19 · SPCX | Elon Musk Says SpaceX’s $28.5 Trillion Market Estimate Was Wrong, Insisting The Real Figure Is “Vastly Higher” Than Its IPO Filing |
| — | Elon Musk pledged to give every child in the United States a share of SpaceX next year. resolves 27.10.19 |
bullish · 26.10.19 · SPCX | Musk vows to gift every US kid a share of SpaceX |
| — | Elon Musk announced on social media that he will give every kid in America a SpaceX share by 2027. resolves 27.10.19 |
bullish · 26.10.19 · SPCX | Elon Musk says he’ll give every kid in America a SpaceX share in 2027 |
| — | Elon Musk announced he will award a SpaceX share to every American child in 2027. resolves 27.10.19 |
bullish · 26.10.19 · SPCX | Elon Musk Plans to Give Every American Child One SpaceX Share in 2027 |
| — | Elon Musk said he will give one SpaceX share to every child in America next year. resolves 27.10.19 |
bullish · 26.10.19 · SPCX | Nolte: Elon Giving American Kids a SpaceX Share Will Create Capitalists |
| — | Elon Musk pledged on X to give one SpaceX share to every kid in America next year. resolves 27.10.19 |
bullish · 26.10.19 · SPCX | Musk Plans to Give a SpaceX share to “Every Kid in America” |
| — | Elon Musk posted on X that he will give every child in the United States a share of SpaceX next year. resolves 27.10.19 |
bullish · 26.10.19 · SPCX | Elon Musk promises to give a SpaceX share to the kids of America |
| — | Elon Musk wrote on X that next year he will give one of his SpaceX shares to every kid in America. resolves 27.10.19 |
bearish · 26.10.19 · SPCX | Elon Musk Just Said He’ll Give a SpaceX Share to ‘Every Kid in America.’ That Could Cost Him $10.7 Billion. |
| — | Elon Musk vows to give a SpaceX share to every kid in the United States next year. resolves 27.10.19 |
bullish · 26.10.19 · SPCX | Elon Musk Vows to Give a SpaceX Share to 'Every Kid In America' |
| — | Next year, I will give one of my SpaceX (SPCX) shares to every kid in America. This will be the first of many. resolves 27.10.19 |
bullish · 26.10.19 · SPCX | Elon Musk says he plans to give SpaceX stock away to 'every kid in America' |
| — | Elon Musk said he will give every child in the U.S. one of his SpaceX shares next year. resolves 27.10.19 |
bullish · 26.10.19 · SPCX | Elon Musk says he'll give a SpaceX share to every child in America next year |
| — | Elon Musk stated that Tesla's Optimus humanoid robot and Cybercab will constitute the majority of the company's value, highlighting robotics and AI as central to its long-term strategy rather than just cars. resolves 28.10.17 |
bullish · 26.10.18 · TSLA | Elon Musk Says Optimus, Cybercab Will Be ‘the Vast Majority’ of Tesla’s Value |
| — | Musk indicated that this Roadster might be the only manually driven car Tesla makes long-term, emphasizing a future centered on robotaxis and AI. resolves 28.10.16 |
bearish · 26.10.17 · TSLA | With flying Roadster, Tesla waves goodbye to the car business |
| — | Tesla is targeting 50,000 Semi units annually. resolves 27.09.25 |
bullish · 26.09.25 · TSLA | Tesla has begun ‘high volume’ production of semi truck, Musk says |
| — | Tesla is targeting 50,000 Semi units annually. resolves 27.09.25 |
bullish · 26.09.25 · TSLA | Tesla has begun ‘high volume’ production of semi truck, Musk says |
| — | The goal is to equip the Memphis facility with 1 million graphics processing units by 2026. resolves 29.09.24 |
bullish · 26.09.25 · NVDA | Elon Musk Aims to Double Colossus 2’s Nvidia Chips by Year-End |
| — | Elon Musk announced that Colossus 2 could more than double its Nvidia chip count by the end of the year. resolves 27.09.25 |
bullish · 26.09.25 · NVDA | Elon Musk Aims to Double Colossus 2’s Nvidia Chips by Year-End |
| — | Elon Musk posted on X on September 13 saying he is "highly confident" that NVIDIA AI chips will be integrated into SpaceX hardware by next year. resolves 27.09.20 |
bullish · 26.09.20 · NVDA | Musk Says NVIDIA (NVDA) AI Chips Are Headed to Space With SpaceX (SPCX) Next Year |
| — | Elon Musk said Tesla plans to begin shipping its Optimus humanoid robot to commercial customers in 2027. resolves 28.09.14 |
bullish · 26.09.15 · TSLA | Elon Musk Says Optimus Robots Will Ship to Customers in 2027 — Here's What That Could Mean for Tesla |
| — | Elon Musk predicts SpaceX could reach about $3.5 trillion in annual revenue by 2033. resolves 35.08.27 |
bullish · 26.08.29 · SPCX | Elon Musk and Morgan Stanley’s SpaceX Predictions Are 7 Years Apart |
| — | Elon Musk projects SpaceX will generate $3.5 trillion in revenue by 2033. resolves 34.08.27 |
bullish · 26.08.29 · SPCX | Elon Projects SpaceX $3.5 Trillion Revenue in 2033 |
| — | Elon Musk stated significant scale is expected in 2028. resolves 29.05.23 |
bullish · 26.08.27 · NVDA | SpaceX targets Q4 2027 launch for Nvidia-powered AI satellites |
| — | Musk says no one gets free bread until he has replaced every worker with a robot. resolves 36.08.23 |
bullish · 26.08.26 · TSLA | Elon Musk: No One Gets Free Bread Until I Have Replaced Every Worker With a Robot |
| — | Musk has promised that future Americans won't have to work and will get paid to do nothing. resolves 36.08.23 |
bearish · 26.08.26 · TSLA | Elon Musk: No One Gets Free Bread Until I Have Replaced Every Worker With a Robot |
| — | Musk insists this will happen thanks to his humanoid robot Optimus. resolves 36.08.23 |
bullish · 26.08.26 · TSLA | Elon Musk: No One Gets Free Bread Until I Have Replaced Every Worker With a Robot |
| — | SpaceX will send at least one Vera Rubin NVL72 rack-scale system into orbit next year, with more to follow in 2028. resolves 27.08.26 |
bullish · 26.08.26 · SPCX | SpaceX claims it will put a Vera Rubin NVL72 rack-scale system into orbit next year |
| — | Elon Musk previously indicated that retail customers could purchase the Cybercab at $30,000 or less before 2027. resolves 28.02.25 |
bullish · 26.08.24 · TSLA | Traders give Tesla just a 17% chance of selling a $30,000 Cybercab this year |
| — | The tower catch of the Starship will happen in a few months. resolves 26.11.22 |
bullish · 26.08.24 · SPCX | SpaceX Starship Months for Tower Catch Schedule But 10X Launch Approvals |
| — | The first reflight of the ship will be either end of this year or early next. resolves 27.03.12 |
bullish · 26.08.24 · SPCX | SpaceX Starship Months for Tower Catch Schedule But 10X Launch Approvals |
| — | Elon Musk says the first catch attempt could come within months. resolves 27.02.19 |
bullish · 26.08.23 · SPCX | SpaceX built the most powerful rocket in history without landing legs on its upper stage, designing it instead to be caught after re-entry by a pair of giant arms on the launch tower — and Elon Musk now says the first attempt could come within months. |
| — | Elon Musk predicted that Tesla and SpaceX would exceed analysts' five-year revenue forecasts, describing the growth as 'crazy'. resolves 31.08.20 |
bullish · 26.08.21 · TSLA | TSLA Stock Eyes Another Winning Week: Nevada Clears Up To 5,000 Robotaxis, Musk Sees ‘Crazy’ Tesla Growth |
| — | Musk says AI is hitting an energy wall and his five-word solution will change everything. resolves 28.08.17 |
bullish · 26.08.18 · TSLA | Elon Musk says AI is hitting an energy wall—his 5-word solution changes everything |
| — | Elon Musk said that the Tesla Bot has the potential to be a generalized substitute for human labor over time. resolves 28.08.17 |
bullish · 26.08.18 · TSLA | Quote of the day by Elon Musk: '[The Tesla Bot] has the potential to be a generalized substitute for human labor over time' — a bold prediction on the future of work |
| — | Elon Musk predicts that AI will make up 99 percent of SpaceX's value within five years. resolves 31.08.15 |
bullish · 26.08.16 · SPCX | Elon Musk Predicts AI Will Make Up 99 Percent of SpaceX Value Within Five Years |
| — | SpaceX anticipates a significant allocation of Nvidia's Vera Rubin GPUs next year. resolves 27.08.15 |
bullish · 26.08.15 · NVDA | Nvidia discloses $21 billion stake in SpaceX at end of second quarter |
| — | Elon Musk projects Tesla’s Optimus robot will become the firm’s 'biggest product ever,' implying substantial future market dominance and revenue potential if successfully commercialized. resolves 28.08.05 |
bullish · 26.08.06 · TSLA | Elon Musk Says This Will Be Tesla's 'Biggest Product Ever'—If It Can Solve the Supply Chain Issue |
| — | The commercial success of Optimus will drive a significant portion of Tesla's future market valuation. resolves 31.08.05 |
bullish · 26.08.06 · TSLA | Elon Musk Says Tesla's Optimus 'Will Be Epic' in Reply to Personal Robot Question |
| — | Optimus will expand beyond factory environments to manage personal tasks like cooking, childcare, and elderly care. resolves 28.08.05 |
bullish · 26.08.06 · TSLA | Elon Musk Says Tesla's Optimus 'Will Be Epic' in Reply to Personal Robot Question |
| — | Elon Musk projects that Tesla's Optimus robot could become the company's most valuable product, targeting global deployments of millions of units. resolves 28.08.05 |
bullish · 26.08.06 · TSLA | Elon Musk says Optimus could be Tesla's biggest product ever. It still has 3 huge hurdles. |
