Information Technology · resolves 26.12.31 · approved

Will AI smarter than any human (AGI) arrive by the end of 2026?

At Davos in January 2026 Elon Musk said AI might be smarter than any human by year-end; Gary Marcus predicted no AGI in 2026.

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Where the experts stand

Yes

1 on record 50%

Where the public stands

Yes

0 answers —

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Yes — 1 on record

Elon MuskExecutive · BEATS 6

I think by the end of this year, we might have AI that is smarter than any human.

said 26.01.22 on World Economic Forum, Davos · source

No — 1 on record

Gary MarcusBEATS —

We won't get to AGI in 2026 (or 7).

said 25.12.20 on Substack (Marcus on AI) · source

How it resolves · 26.12.31 · Yes if, by 2026-12-31, a released AI system is broadly acknowledged (including by its own maker and independent evaluators) to exceed the smartest human across most cognitive tasks; otherwise No. · by Statements by leading labs and independent evaluations published by 2027-01-31 Dispute a quote