Information Technology · resolves 25.12.31 · closed

Will AI be smarter than the smartest human by the end of 2025?

In April 2024 Elon Musk predicted AI smarter than any one human around the end of 2025; Gary Marcus offered a $1M bet that it would not happen.

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Outcome: No · resolved 25.12.31 · https://forklog.com/en/news/musk-predicts-optimus-launch-and-agi-emergence-by-2026 · a stance dated before that is a call, marked right or wrong below

Where the experts stand

Yes

1 on record 50%

Where the public stands

Yes

0 answers —

0 public answers · one per account Closed to new answers.

Yes — 1 on record Wrong

Elon MuskExecutive · BEATS 6

My guess is that we'll have AI that is smarter than any one human probably around the end of next year

said 24.04.08 on X Spaces (with Nicolai Tangen) · source

No — 1 on record Right

Gary MarcusBEATS —

I don't buy the predictions for the next year.

said 24.04.09 on Substack (Marcus on AI) · source

How it resolves · 25.12.31 · Yes if, by 2025-12-31, a released AI system was broadly acknowledged (including by its own maker and independent evaluators) to exceed the smartest human across most cognitive tasks; otherwise No. · by Statements by leading labs and independent evaluations published by 2026-01-31 Dispute a quote