Where do they stand?

Look up any expert or public figure. See what they actually said, when, with the source, and where the public stands beside them.

Who was right

Financials · resolved 19.12.31: No In 2011, would the bond bubble burst - 10-year Treasury above 4% by 2019?

Yes ✗

3 on record 60%

Bill Gross, Alan Greenspan, Jamie Dimon

No ✓ right

2 on record 40%

Gary Shilling, Lacy Hunt

5 on record · 0 public answers

Economics · resolved 15.12.31: No In 2012, would Greece leave the euro by 2015?

Yes ✗

3 on record 60%

Nouriel Roubini, Willem Buiter, Alan Greenspan

No ✓ right

2 on record 40%

George Soros, Mario Draghi

5 on record · 0 public answers

Consumer Discretionary · resolved 19.12.31: No In 2018, would Tesla go bankrupt by 2019?

Yes ✗

3 on record 60%

Bob Lutz, Jim Chanos, David Einhorn

No ✓ right

2 on record 40%

Elon Musk, Cathie Wood

5 on record · 0 public answers

Politics · resolved 16.11.09: Trump In 2016, would Donald Trump win the US presidential election?

Trump ✓ right

2 on record 40%

Michael Moore, Allan Lichtman

Clinton ✗

3 on record 60%

Sam Wang, Ryan Grim, Nate Silver

5 on record · 0 public answers

Economics · resolved 23.12.31: No In 2022, would the US enter a recession in 2023?

Yes ✗

3 on record 60%

Jamie Dimon, Michael Burry, David Rosenberg

No ✓ right

2 on record 40%

Jan Hatzius, Janet Yellen

5 on record · 0 public answers

Politics · resolved 24.11.06: Trump Who would win the 2024 US presidential election?

Trump ✓ right

2 on record 50%

Ben Shapiro, Piers Morgan

Harris ✗

2 on record 50%

Joe Rogan, Bill Maher

4 on record · 0 public answers

Communication Services · resolved 25.02.04: Not disrupted In early 2023, would ChatGPT-style AI disrupt Google Search's business by 2024?

Disrupted ✗

3 on record 75%

Paul Buchheit, Satya Nadella, Cathie Wood

Not disrupted ✓ right

1 on record 25%

Sundar Pichai

4 on record · 0 public answers

Information Technology · resolved 26.02.25: Keeps growing In January 2025, would DeepSeek's cheap AI cut Nvidia's data-center growth?

Keeps growing ✓ right

3 on record 75%

Pat Gelsinger, Satya Nadella, Jensen Huang

Demand falls ✗

1 on record 25%

Jeffrey Emanuel

4 on record · 0 public answers

Communication Services · resolved 25.01.29: Pays off In April 2024, would Meta's AI spending surge pay off in revenue growth?

Pays off ✓ right

2 on record 50%

Mark Zuckerberg, Brian Nowak

Doesn't pay off ✗

2 on record 50%

Mark Shmulik, Sophie Lund-Yates

4 on record · 0 public answers

Macro Trends · resolved 20.03.23: Crash and lockdowns In February 2020, would COVID-19 crash markets and shut down the US?

Contained / overblown ✗

3 on record 75%

Larry Kudlow, Donald Trump, Elon Musk

Crash and lockdowns ✓ right

1 on record 25%

Bill Ackman

4 on record · 0 public answers

Real Estate · resolved 08.06.30: Yes, a crash In 2005, was US housing in a bubble that would crash nationwide?

Yes, a crash ✓ right

1 on record 25%

Peter Schiff

No, prices stabilize ✗

3 on record 75%

Alan Reynolds, Ben Bernanke, David Lereah

4 on record · 0 public answers

Financials · resolved 20.12.31: No In 2017, would bitcoin collapse below $1,000 by 2020?

Yes ✗

3 on record 75%

Jamie Dimon, Warren Buffett, Nouriel Roubini

No ✓ right

1 on record 25%

Tim Draper

4 on record · 0 public answers

Politics · resolved 22.02.24: Yes, invasion In January 2022, would Russia invade Ukraine?

Yes, invasion ✓ right

1 on record 25%

Joe Biden

No, posturing ✗

3 on record 75%

Sergei Ryabkov, Sergei Lavrov, Volodymyr Zelensky

4 on record · 0 public answers

Information Technology · resolved 26.07.29: Faster growth In April 2025, would Microsoft's fiscal 2026 capex grow more slowly than fiscal 2025's?

Slower growth ✗

2 on record 67%

Ed Zitron, Amy Hood

Faster growth ✓ right

1 on record 33%

Satya Nadella

3 on record · 0 public answers

Communication Services · resolved 26.02.04: Keeps growing In 2025, would AI chatbots make Google Search revenue shrink?

Keeps growing ✓ right

2 on record 67%

Mark Mahaney, Sundar Pichai

Shrinks ✗

1 on record 33%

Eddy Cue

3 on record · 0 public answers

Communication Services · resolved 24.02.01: Yes In October 2022, would Meta spend less on capex in 2023 than in 2022?

Yes ✓ right

2 on record 67%

Brad Gerstner, Mark Zuckerberg

No ✗

1 on record 33%

David Wehner

3 on record · 0 public answers

Economics · resolved 15.12.31: No In 2010, would QE bring US hyperinflation (CPI above 5%) by 2015?

Yes ✗

2 on record 67%

Peter Schiff, Niall Ferguson

No ✓ right

1 on record 33%

Paul Krugman

3 on record · 0 public answers

Macro Trends · resolved 17.12.31: No In 2016, would China suffer a hard landing by 2017?

Yes ✗

2 on record 67%

George Soros, Kyle Bass

No ✓ right

1 on record 33%

Stephen Roach

3 on record · 0 public answers

Energy · resolved 10.12.31: No In 2008, would oil reach $200 a barrel by 2010?

Yes ✗

2 on record 67%

Arjun Murti, T. Boone Pickens

No ✓ right

1 on record 33%

George Soros

3 on record · 0 public answers

Macro Trends · resolved 22.07.13: Not transitory In 2021, was the surge in US inflation 'transitory'?

Transitory ✗

3 on record 100%

Jerome Powell, Janet Yellen, Cathie Wood

Not transitory ✓ right

0 on record 0%

3 on record · 0 public answers

Politics · resolved 16.06.24: Leave In June 2016, would Britain vote to leave the EU?

Leave ✓ right

1 on record 33%

Donald Trump

Remain ✗

2 on record 67%

Nigel Farage, Peter Kellner

3 on record · 0 public answers

Financials · resolved 25.12.31: No Did the S&P 500 fall into a bear market (20% below its record close) in 2025?

Yes ✗

1 on record 50%

Robert Kiyosaki

No ✓ right

1 on record 50%

Tom Lee

2 on record · 0 public answers

Information Technology · resolved 25.12.31: No Will AI be smarter than the smartest human by the end of 2025?

Yes ✗

1 on record 50%

Elon Musk

No ✓ right

1 on record 50%

Gary Marcus

2 on record · 0 public answers

Politics · resolved 22.11.16: No Would the 2022 midterms be a Republican red wave (20+ House seats gained)?

Yes ✗

2 on record 100%

Bill Maher, Joe Rogan

No ✓ right

0 on record 0%

2 on record · 0 public answers

Financials · resolved 25.12.31: No Did Bitcoin close 2025 at or above $150,000?

Yes ✗

2 on record 100%

Michael Saylor, Tom Lee

No ✓ right

0 on record 0%

2 on record · 0 public answers

Information Technology · resolved 25.04.30: No In February 2025, after TD Cowen's lease-cancellation note, would Microsoft cut its AI capex plan?

Yes ✗

0 on record 0%

No ✓ right

2 on record 100%

Brad Smith, Jordan Klein

2 on record · 0 public answers

Information Technology · resolved 25.02.06: No In January 2025, after DeepSeek R1, would a hyperscaler cut its 2025 AI capex plan?

Yes ✗

0 on record 0%

No ✓ right

2 on record 100%

Satya Nadella, Mark Zuckerberg

2 on record · 0 public answers

Information Technology · resolved 02.10.09: Yes, a bubble In 1999, was the dot-com stock market a bubble about to burst?

Yes, a bubble ✓ right

1 on record 50%

Warren Buffett

No, a new era ✗

1 on record 50%

Jim Cramer

2 on record · 0 public answers

Financials · resolved 08.09.15: Full-blown crisis In 2007, was the subprime mortgage problem 'contained'?

Contained ✗

2 on record 100%

Ben Bernanke, Chuck Prince

Full-blown crisis ✓ right

0 on record 0%

2 on record · 0 public answers

Consumer Discretionary · resolved 20.12.31: No Will Tesla have over a million robotaxis on the road in 2020?

Yes ✗

1 on record 100%

Elon Musk

No ✓ right

0 on record 0%

1 on record · 0 public answers

Industrials · resolved 25.12.31: No Did Tesla build thousands of Optimus humanoid robots in 2025?

Yes ✗

1 on record 100%

Elon Musk

No ✓ right

0 on record 0%

1 on record · 0 public answers

Future predictions

Information Technology Is AI a bubble?

Yes

5 on record 62%

Sam Altman, Bill Gates, Michael Burry +2 more

3 on record 38%

Jim Cramer, David Sacks, Cathie Wood

Too early to say

0 on record 0%

8 on record · 0 public answers

Politics Do they support President Trump?

Support

0 on record 0%

Oppose

4 on record 100%

Brian Tyler Cohen, Mehdi Hasan, Cenk Uygur +1 more

Mixed

0 on record 0%

4 on record · 0 public answers

Financials · resolves 26.12.31 Will Bitcoin set a new all-time high in 2026?

Yes

2 on record 67%

Robert Kiyosaki, Tom Lee

1 on record 33%

Peter Schiff

3 on record · 0 public answers

Information Technology · resolves 26.12.31 Will AI smarter than any human (AGI) arrive by the end of 2026?

Yes

1 on record 50%

Elon Musk

1 on record 50%

Gary Marcus

2 on record · 0 public answers

Politics · resolves 27.01.03 Will Democrats win control of the US House in the 2026 midterms?

Yes

2 on record 100%

Piers Morgan, Megyn Kelly

0 on record 0%

2 on record · 0 public answers

Industrials · resolves 27.12.31 Will Tesla sell Optimus humanoid robots to the public by the end of 2027?

Yes

1 on record 100%

Elon Musk

0 on record 0%

1 on record · 0 public answers

Financials · resolves 26.12.31 Will Bitcoin trade at or above $100,000 by 26.12.31?

Yes

1 on record 100%

Tom Lee

0 on record 0%

1 on record · 0 public answers

Financials · resolves 26.12.31 Will the S&P 500 close at or above 8,000 on 26.12.31?

Yes

1 on record 100%

Tom Lee

0 on record 0%

1 on record · 0 public answers

Highest win rates

share of settled calls that proved right · at least 3 settled calls

Jason Cross · 100% · 4 of 4 right
Mark Zuckerberg Executive · 100% · 3 of 3 right
Roland Hutchinson · 75% · 15 of 20 right
Satya Nadella Executive · 75% · 3 of 4 right
Mark Gurman · 71% · 5 of 7 right
George Anton · 67% · 4 of 6 right
George Soros · 67% · 2 of 3 right
Amit Kukreja KOL · 46% · 25 of 54 right
Cathie Wood Fund Manager · 33% · 1 of 3 right
Soumya Eswaran · 33% · 1 of 3 right

Latest stances

Tom Lee says Yes to Will the S&P 500 close at or above 8,000 on 26.12.31?

said 26.09.16 on CNBC Closing Bell, via Stocktwits · source

Tim Dillon says Oppose to Do they support President Trump?

said 26.06.06 on The Tim Dillon Show (podcast) · source

Megyn Kelly says Yes to Will Democrats win control of the US House in the 2026 midterms?

said 26.06.01 on Piers Morgan Uncensored (YouTube) · source

Cenk Uygur says Oppose to Do they support President Trump?

said 26.03.20 on Piers Morgan Uncensored (YouTube) · source

Mehdi Hasan says Oppose to Do they support President Trump?

said 26.02.24 on Zeteo anti-SOTU speech · source

Piers Morgan says Yes to Will Democrats win control of the US House in the 2026 midterms?

said 26.02.17 on Piers Morgan Uncensored (YouTube) · source

Tom Lee says Yes to Will Bitcoin set a new all-time high in 2026?

said 26.01.21 on CNBC interview, via CCN/Yahoo Finance · source

Tom Lee says Yes to Will Bitcoin trade at or above $100,000 by 26.12.31?

said 26.01.21 on CNBC interview, via CCN/Yahoo Finance · source